A little departure from the normal Harding Perspective today, taking a firm look at what went wrong in the first leg and how we can rectify these issues for the return leg on Tuesday.

Firstly, we should not kid ourselves at the difficulty of the job at hand. Given the level of the performance required against United on Tuesday, the warm-up against Wigan hardly served as perfect preparation.

An outing more akin to a pre-season friendly in terms of tempo, drive and urgency was certainly not what was needed. United on the other hand played as well as they have done in recent memory at Stamford Bridge, cantering to a victory over Fulham where they rested several key players.

The stonewall penalty aside, the difference in the game was purely that United took their chance. We were poor, but could easily have scored with the few chances we created. Our finishing for large parts of this season has been criminal; we presently lack creativity, so any chance we do create needs to be finished. An over reliance on Drogba and Lampard to score/create has been found out recently. Uncharacteristic misses by Lampard (though credit for the clearance off the line) and Drogba have left a void that no one in the present side seems capable of filling.

There has been much talk about Fernando Torres recently as the goal drought continues, with Patrick Barclay going as far as saying it was “the worst signing, by a long, long way, in the history of football.” While Patrick is entitled to his opinion, the anti-Chelsea bile that imbues almost every article he writes is bordering the absurd now. If you happen to read this, do try a little harder to hide your obvious disdain for everything Royal Blue.

Being completely blunt Torres has disappointed since his move in January, but I for one am not totally surprised. Paying £50m one could rightfully expect an instant impact, goals galore, steering Chelsea to a Champions League final and back into the title race. As things have transpired that has not been the case with pundits and journalists alike loving every second he does not score. I should remind Chelsea fans and the media alike that he is on a 5½ year contract. He needs a summer off from football and a rigorous pre-season, but also Chelsea need a complete rethink of how they play. Benayoun played for a matter of minutes yesterday, but spotted two passes that Torres latched onto and was unlucky to score. I will leave it there.

The Blueprint…

The Shape: Attack with Caution

The overriding mentality of many Chelsea fans heading into this game will simply be “just win the game” and seemingly that is at an all costs mentality. Without question we need to attack and score early, but we must play with some defensive shape or United could win this at a canter. I am opting for a 433 formation with one player holding, probably Mikel or Ramires, but I will be very surprised if Ancelotti does not start with Essien.

Taking the horrific defending of Bosingwa out of the equation, this was symptomatic of exactly how United managed to get so much joy against us playing 442. In the above you will see Essien and Lampard, the two central players in our shape, between 10-20 yards away from the player in the hole (Rooney, circled). The consistent problem, defensively, with our 442 is that neither Essien nor Lampard are naturally patrolling the space in front of our back four.

When this happens around the penalty area, inevitably a shot on target is produced. It often happens higher up the pitch, where Rooney (or whoever is in the hole), but the amount of space they consistently found all night was telling. Allowing a player of Rooney’s calibre the amount of space (below) is utterly astonishing. Playing an actual holding player will completely nullify this advantage they have had in the past two games. Even though we beat United, think of the space Rooney found himself in for his goal.

The lack of a ball winning midfielder at the base of our midfield presented United with ample opportunities to win every second ball in dangerous areas. This passage of play led to United scoring from an offside position.

John Terry wins the header, naturally, but with no holding player and Ivanovic sweeping the ball drops straight into an area that Rooney once again picks up on. The DM, above, would have been in and around this area as opposed to on the periphery as Ramires/Essien are in this clip.

If we have a holding midfielder anywhere in that circle, which there would be if we deployed one in a 433, Rooney does not get on the ball and the chance does not manifest itself. The fact remains that when playing a 442 in the fashion we do, the centre-back pairing are left exposed to a dangerous player operating in the hole. Rooney is finding form and has/can/will cause us headaches if we do not deploy someone to counteract him when United have the ball.

One of our biggest problems in this 442 is a complete lack of natural width in the side. The below clips shows one of the few times we manage to slip Lampard in between the lines, he needs to take one touch and deliver it to the space highlighted, but Ramires and Ivanovic both have natural central tendencies.

We had success in the few instances that we actually pressed the ball as a team, particularly high up the pitch. Allowing players like Giggs, Scholes and Carrick infinite time on the ball is only going to lead to United retaining and maintaining possession. We cannot let them set the tempo and dictate the flow of the game. The Cole example below led to an opportunity for Drogba.

Cole wins the ball high and where United would normally have 2/3 players around the line, only Carrick is present. Our ponderous build up play allows United to set their stall out rigidly in front of the back four, so mixing our pressing up and trying to win the ball high means we have a chance to attack United when they are unorganised.

If we can turn defence into attack quickly, we can actually get at the United back four as illustrated below:

The chasm of space on the right hand side is something that comes from United’s style of defending particularly narrow. We need to play with wingers or someone who will actually stick wide to fully exploit United. The above passage of play led to the Drogba shot, as he ghosted past Evra in the wide channel.

What we need to do, most importantly, is to actually commit bodies forward. Even when Drogba shot, there were very few Chelsea players in advanced positions.

The Team

I personally think we need to play 433 and unless Benayoun starts, Drogba needs to play. Kalou must start over Malouda and Anelka needs to rediscover some semblance of form or our right hand side will continue to look imbalanced. I cannot see Essien not starting, even though form suggests otherwise and genuinely would like to see Ramires hold and Essien bomb on. Essien’s distribution from the base of midfield has been lacklustre; Ramires’ industry and footwork will mean he’s far harder to pick up and could be the gambit for our attack.

It goes without saying that this will be a huge game for Anelka/Drogba. If they perform for more than 10-15 minutes, we have a shot. Wigan was not a decent omen, but it would be very Chelsea to play so poorly and then go put in a tie winning performance. Somehow, someway, we need to inject some sort of urgency into our performance. Tempo is a guy word bandied about in football, but in our last two performances it has been sorely missed.

If we score early, who knows what will happen, but United are expert in crafting results out that they need. If we get a result it will be a momentous achievement, given our form going into the game. Genuinely think it will be a struggle, but one that we can win if we address the obvious problems of playing a 442 against United.

Prediction? Depends on which Chelsea turn up. If we play as we have done, we are as good as out.

Sunday’s outing against Manchester City will prove pivotal in the fate of both sides come the end of the season. For City it is a chance to place some distance between them and the chasing pack; for Chelsea, a win puts them above City with a game in hand to play. While every game from now until the end of the season is labelled a must-win, a draw may not be a bad result for either side. Nevertheless, a win against City is long overdue and would be more than welcome in the circumstances.

A look at the League Table shows precisely how close things are at the moment:

A win moves Chelsea to 54 points and provides the opportunity to consolidate third place, with a game in hand.

Expected side:

I can see City lining up with something similar to the above. Tevez may start up top, with the more industrious Milner put in a wide berth, but I imagine Silva starting given his form of late. The midfield triangle of Touré, De Jong and Barry are established at the heart of the City side and seem to feature in the majority of City’s “Sky Six” games. They were particularly effective in the first game at Eastland: De Jong and Barry are an exceptional shield in front of a very athletic and robust back four.

The thing that stands out about this City side is the competitiveness and physical prowess of their midfield and defence. We have not had much joy playing the Drogba way against City in recent years, this is largely due to their ability to absorb direct play and counter our robust direct style.

Hart is an excellent young goalkeeper who has rightly made the England Number One shirt his own. However, one must look at the few errors that have crept into his game since establishing himself in the England set-up. The added pressure that comes with being the England goalkeeper brings an added level of scrutiny on every performance. You have to wonder if that level of scrutiny is hampering him slightly.

The back four is about as athletic and powerful as it gets in the Premier League. Kompany is an excellent player who continues to develop each game. One of City’s less glamorous signings, he is arguably first choice among more expensive colleagues. Very good at timing his tackles and blocks, his one weakness is a tendency to follow the ball too much at times. Looking at the goal against Everton earlier this season, Kompany’s awareness was all over the place leaving Cahill entirely unmarked. The arrival of Torres could cause Kompany a more unfamiliar problem.

De Jong provides a gritty physical base for City to build upon in their midfield. Without question I am not his biggest fan, reckless tackles aside, but he does a similar job to Mascherano in his Liverpool days: wins the ball and gives it to better players. In fact, the Barry/De Jong partnership is tantamount to the Alonso/Mascherano one that Liverpool employed so successfully during their stint as a big club. Barry benefits hugely from De Jong’s pace by his side. His ponderous nature is hard to isolate in a side that places De Jong and Touré either side when they do not have the ball. If we can get around Barry and actually turn him, make him move, we will definitely get joy out of this City midfield – as many teams have seen, this is easier said than done. Touré has been a decent acquisition and likes to drive forward centrally with the ball. I can see him playing slightly more withdrawn on Sunday, picking his moments to break forward.

Moving onto the front three, Tevez moving wide to accommodate Dzeko could potentially be a blessing in disguise. I do not feel City are the same when Tevez is asked to move from a central role, but it will be interesting to see Tevez up against Luiz if Dzeko does not start. Luiz has been a bit impetuous in the tackle and will need to show more patience against Tevez. Once Luiz times his challenges, he can arguably become the best centre back at the club on pure ability.

We have looked quite open in front of our back four since the move to a flat 442 formation a few weeks back. Rooney exploited the space frequently and the cumulative result was his goal in the first half. City play far better against better opposition and their ability to fire off shots in this area is quite worrying:

This is where Silva poses problems and arguably will be our biggest problem. He will start wide but drifts infield into the areas that we have been most vulnerable of late. His short passing sets the tempo of City’s entire game and allows Barry and Touré to advance forward to help the attack.

The mixture of short and long passing in and around the 18-yard box will be the aspect of Silva’s play that we need to combat the most. He has the eye for a pass that few in the modern game possess and his ability to find people in a decent position ahead of him will be a huge factor in this game.

KEY ISSUES

1. Marshall The Space – The art of midfield play is something that sets apart good sides from great sides. The move to a flat 442 has seen some more fluid performances in recent weeks, but it has left a salient reoccurring problem that needs to be addressed.

The above is an image of the United game seconds before Rooney drove the ball into the bottom corner. When Ramires and Essien attempt to exert pressure, it leaves a large hole in front of our back four. Playing the flat midfield four means that when one of the central players presses the ball, the other must drop back to cover the space. The dovetailing effect is something that Essien and Lampard have not seemingly mastered on recent showings. The problem arises when players, as Nani has done above, drift into this space and remain unchecked. Gifting players like Silva and Tevez this sort of space could potentially be far more dangerous.

Copenhagen again showed the pitfalls of playing far too flat:

Ramires gets caught pressing the ball too high up the park; Bosingwa then pushes further afield to put pressure on the ball. Essien fails to win the ball and then the ball is played through leaving three Copenhagen players instantly bearing down on the back four. Silva, Tevez and Dzeko would pose more of a problem if given the ball in a similar area.

I am placing the onus on Essien to ensure that the space in front of the back four is occupied when City have the ball. Lampard must also be more aware that when Essien presses the ball, he must sit. We cannot afford to have Terry or Luiz constantly being pulled out of position with the passing of Silva, the dribbling ability of Tevez and Dzeko’s threat in the area. If we can provide more cover to Terry and Luiz, I think we can limit their influence in the final third drastically.

2. Taking Chances – While this might be a very basic point to make in any big game, we have been utterly wasteful in front of goal recently. The Copenhagen home game was an insipid affair, but our few bright sparks of football should have resulted in a goal or more. We seem to have developed Arsenalitis, a fear of taking shots, in and around the area. Anelka has been utterly criminal of late, over-elaborating when taking a shot was the far simpler option.

Anelka will be a key figure on Sunday if he plays close to his full potential. His movement and creativity in a slightly withdrawn role are brilliant when he is on song; however the Copenhagen game highlighted his somewhat wasteful nature in front of goal.

Scoring first against City, who will primarily play on the counter-attack (and very well I might add), is utterly crucial. If ever a team needed encouragement to come and play, it will be City. I think they will be content with a point and have the capacity to play in such a fashion that means they will take what they want from the game. You only need to look at the Arsenal game at the Emirates to see how well City can organise when needed. City at times will resemble a 4321, with three non-committal holding players, ready to spring a counter-attack led by Yaya Touré.

If we create any solid chances against City they need to be taken. City have the players to score goals and they have players to sit on their lead. Whether we get the City who parked Eastlands in front of their 18-yard box against Arsenal or the City who largely bossed United at Old Trafford is anyone’s guess. I do believe we are playing into the type of form that means we can overcome either style.

3. Midfield Numbers – It is quite possible that with the four in midfield we have been using of late, we could become overrun in the middle channels of the pitch. Anelka may be asked to drop slightly deeper on the right hand side to allow Ramires to tuck infield when we lose possession. City won 43 out of 69 tackles in the first encounter, losing only 26; Chelsea won 40 out of 74, losing 34 in the process. Clearly we need to improve those statistics if we are to control the game.

The key dispossession being Ramires on the halfway line that led to Tevez’s goal. Ramires has improved exponentially since his outing at City and given his newly found confidence, City will be foolish to target him physically. I see many comparisons with Dennis Wise and the little Brazilian. His toughness in recent weeks, particularly against United at home, is reminiscent of one of Chelsea’s great. Ramires seems to have a lot more ability in his locker though, which is no condemnation of Wise but an endorsement of the potential Ramires is showing.

If Essien continues his slow return to form, the combination of Ramires and Essien may potentially swing the game in our favour. Trying to target Barry is a must in this respect – the turning circle of a ferry and clear deficiencies in terms of pace, Ramires and Essien can both catch him with the ball and get away from him when in possession.

De Jong and Touré are the enforcers in the City midfield. Both will try to shackle Lampard’s forward runs, something they did not have to contend with in the first game. Lampard has rediscovered his knack of scoring goals, even if some of his overall performances have been below par. As the old adage goes, goals wins games, and Lampard’s return will pose City problems.

If we win our personal battles and are better than our opposite man, we will create a chance that should be converted. I am certain of that fact.

THE TEAM:

I think the above will be similar to what we will look like without the ball. However, there are quite a few permutations Carlo can call upon (finally!) for this game against City. He may pair Mikel and Essien in front of the back four and play with Ramires, Lampard and Zhirkov behind Torres to mirror City’s formation. Yet, the most promising part about everything surrounding the squad at the moment is that we finally have some options on the bench to alter the shape and style of the team. The potential is there to throw on Kalou, Drogba, Malouda and Mikel if needs be.

I think this is a game that we cannot afford to lose, but the reward of three points and a potential 4 point cushion over City means a win is absolutely vital. Things seem to be slowly clicking into place; long-term injuries will come back and provide something different (Benayoun) and competition at the back (Alex). Torres is finding his feet, looking comfortable in blue and now only really needs a goal to elicit confidence.

I am excited to see the combination of Anelka, Lampard and Zhirkov working with Torres’s movement. Some of the brief flashes of quality against Copenhagen came from some wonderfully incisive passing. We seem to have discovered that Zhirkov can find that pass and that Lampard is slotting into the provider role quite well.

Will Torres break his scoring duck against City?

I hope so…

My Prediction? Score first, win the game.

Carefree.

This game, without question, is pivotal for both sides. For United it gives them a chance to hammer home their title credentials; for Chelsea it is a chance to not only creep back into the top four but signal their intent for the remainder of an underwhelming season.

With Chelsea’s switch to a flat 442 last week, Ferguson will have a few more questions to answer before he sets his team up. United adopt a customary 451 in bigger games, but given our recent form will they be slightly more adventurous?

United will line up very similar to the above, fitness permitting, Nani and Giggs providing width with Rooney playing the lone man up top. Ferguson has previously attempted to mark the wide channels with a lot of success.

Nani is less inclined to play both ways but will be their main outlet going forward. Ferguson will look to stifle our midfield, with Fletcher and Carrick acting as a combative screen and the gambit of their attacks.

Expected side:

United will look to press the ball and exert their influence the central area of the pitch. Looking specifically in the middle third of the park against Wigan, we can see that Carrick’s return to form and range of passing allowed United to play the game at their pace. Carrick will focus on retaining possession first and foremost but he will spread the play if it is on.

Where we may have joy is if we encourage a role reversal with Scholes and Fletcher. Scholes is an excellent passer of the ball, but when forced long from deep he tended to find his target a lot less. Likewise, encouraging Fletcher to come forward and look for the intricate pass could well work in our favour. Forcing Fletcher out wide or tight centrally should severely limit United’s play going forward.

Someone in our midfield needs to step up and match the work rate and industry of Fletcher: I personally think he is quite limited, but he is an effective player. If we can negate his defensive influence or better yet, if the referee actually books him as soon as he makes a reckless tackle (given his ability to physically push a referee and not get booked I doubt this…) we should remove one of their major strengths.

Lampard, Ramires and Essien will need to play intelligently when defending. When we played in a flat four we afforded too much space “in the hole”. Someone needs to take the responsibility to drop without the ball, almost to a compact diamond, to counteract United’s movement.

KEY ISSUES

1. MIDFIELD BATTLE – This will be the area where the game is won or lost. United will either succeed to dominate the physical side of the game and subsequently possession or we will compete with them and gain the upper hand. We were much improved against Copenhagen, and we will need the same improvement again if we are to come out on top here. I doubt we will use a flat midfield four, as I assume United will play 3 centrally; giving United a man advantage could be dangerous using the Liverpool game as a precedent.

Essien looked better against Copenhagen in general and will need to be at his marauding best to tackle the obvious menace of Fletcher. He is a long way off his best form, but if he is effective defensively it will be a great help. Ramires is proving game by game what a shrewd signing he has been.

In a Chelsea team playing well he could be exceptional. I think he needs to shadow Nani, use his pace and acceleration to at least make Nani check when he has the ball. Lampard’s contribution against Copenhagen showed that there is life in the old dog yet. A sublime pass to Anelka set up our second goal and a more fluid display shows encouragement.

If we can break up United’s flow on the counter-attack we will go a long way to halting them in their tracks. I would like to see us pressure the ball, particularly when Fletcher is in possession and attempt to stop Scholes/Carrick passing the ball.

2. WIDE AREAS – We must look to try and play with width if we are to create anything against a stubborn United side. Nani is arguably the player of the season thus far, but Ashley Cole will provide a far sterner test than he regularly faces. Let’s hope Ashley hits the target in this duel.

The central areas are likely to be very compact and I doubt we have the guile to penetrate what is a very resolute screen. Full backs could very well provide the answer to who wins this game. In Evra and Rafael United possess two very forward thinking full-backs: Cole and Ivanovic must pose them more problems then they need to deal with. Which full-back is seen furthest forward with the most regularity could be the clearest indicator of how the game is panning out.

3. SCORING FIRST – We must try and push the tempo of the game and get the first goal. To do this we need to get our movement ahead of the ball back. Fulham in particular highlighted the utter lack of movement ahead of the ball that we suffer from. No amount of incisive passing could improve the movement ahead of the back four.

Hopefully Luiz and Terry could provide a unique answer: JT in recent weeks has surged from the back and Luiz looks like he could potentially beat an entire side. The United counter remains devastating and we must guard against the potential threat of them turning defence into attack quickly.

An early goal would be priceless as it should encourage United onto the front foot. Smalling and Vidic, as good as they have been (particularly the latter), are susceptible to a well-timed run down the side of their respective channel. This is why Torres must start.

THE TEAM:

Torres and Anelka showed signs of an understanding developing in Copenhagen and I think Drogba may be consigned to a bench role. However, do not be surprised if he does start the game. I think Anelka and Torres may prove problems, stylistically, for Vidic in particular. Vidic notably copes well with the physical threat of Drogba, so facing two trickier players whose movement looks to be gelling should test him.

I think we will line up in some 442 variation, but I stress that playing a flat midfield four against a potential midfield five will be troubling on present form. Rooney’s tendency to drop deep will mean that one of Lampard, Ramires or Essien will need to be alert to the giant hole that was present against Copenhagen.

Ultimately I think this will be a tight game that will be won by a very tight margin. The team who scores first will more than likely win the game and chances should be quite rare. I expect the game to be concentrated within the midfield area, so we must be individually better than them.

I am interested to see how Luiz copes with Rooney and in particular to see his use of the ball in a tight game. He has impressed greatly in his few minutes on the pitch, but this will be a test from all areas on the park. His all around play looked quality on his full debut, the big test comes on Tuesday.

With Monday’s monumental events still burning (literally, in Torres shirts) across Merseyside, the usual fiery encounter with the Red side of Liverpool has accrued another level of animosity. Pundits, journalists and ex-players of a Red disposition have all toed the party line espoused by “King” Kenny: Torres is finished.

While this article serves to preview matches without indulging in the tittle tattle that pervades much of the written press, I must say that the majority of what has been said this week has bordered on ridiculous. The Liverpool Myth sums up much of what I feel on the situation. Any comments please leave them on the linked piece, but I am more than happy to discuss the tactical nuances of the game.

I can see Liverpool employing a 451 variation, probably 4231 in attack, with Kuyt/Gerrard supporting Suárez. Poulsen should recover from a back spasm and will more than likely partner Lucas in the middle of the park, providing cover for the Liverpool back four.

Reina remains one of the best shot stoppers in the League and can count himself unlucky on the international stage. He is athletic and blessed with superb reflexes, Reina needs little introduction to Chelsea fans as he has pulled out some superb saves from us in recent years. There is reported interest from Manchester United to take Reina as the successor to Van der Sar, but Dalglish will be keen to keep Reina as a keystone of his Anfield rebuild.

Kelly looks to be blessed with great potential at right back. Tall, a good turn of pace and strong in the tackle, he was particularly impressive against Stoke. Whether he will eventually move over to Centre Back when Carragher retires remains to be seen, but Kelly is a player I like with international aspirations. Johnson is a player we know well at Chelsea whose strengths and limitations are rather salient. Excellent going forward, but more than suspect defensively, he has found himself at left back under Dalglish.

Skrtel and Agger are likely to play, with Carragher taking a position on the bench. Both are uncompromising defenders, who are robust in the air and susceptible to pace down either side. In Johnson and Kelly they have plenty of covering legs, so their main focus will be on counteracting the physical threat of Didier Drogba.

The Liverpool midfield will be formed of two banks. I have gone with Poulsen and Lucas to sit in front of the back four. They will help contend with whoever plays at the tip of the diamond and if either forwards drops off in between the lines. Lucas was much maligned in his early Liverpool days, but has improved a lot this season. I still feel he is quite limited on the ball, certainly incomparable to Xabi Alonso, but he does the simple things well and keeps the game ticking over.

Kuyt will work tirelessly as per his normal game and has been used as a direct route when playing opposite Ashley Cole. He has a knack of scoring big goals, despite his overall lack of technical prowess. Meireles seems to be popping up with goals of late after finding his feet in a Liverpool shirt. Gerrard is showing signs of decline this season, but he still remains the heartbeat of the Liverpool midfield. Capable of defence splitting passes and wonderful strikes from distance, tabs will need to be kept on him at all times.

Suárez, for many, is an unknown quantity who people will know from his heroic goalkeeping antics in the World Cup. Whether he starts as a lone striker, or Ngog plays and he occupies a wide berth is up for debate. Particularly noted for his off the ball movement, Suárez will pose a problem wherever he is playing.

Despite the positives from Liverpool’s performance their shape and playing personnel do not fully allow them to utilise the 451/4231 effectively. Stoke frequently were able to manoeuvre the ball down either flank with relative ease. Several crossing opportunities were manufactured and Stoke did progress a little too easily down the wings for Dalglish’s comfort.

Where Liverpool are effective is in the area in front of their back four. This is where Lucas in particular has shown a drastic step forward in his game. His spatial awareness and ability to pick runners up is markedly improve, but questions still linger over his concentration for ninety minutes.

Given our ability to control possession in the middle of the park, we should be able to exploit Liverpool in the wide areas. If we are resorting to a diamond formation we must ensure that we do not narrow our game, as we have done in the past. Compressing our game into the middle of the park will play straight into Liverpool’s hands. Our movement, ability to overlap and competitiveness at the second ball will be crucial in this respect.

KEY ISSUES

1. The Torres Factor – Probably the understatement of the year. Liverpool and their fans will be unbelievably fired up for this trip. The first ten minutes of this game are going to be incredibly important in terms of tempo and our mentality for the game. The Liverpool players will be well aware of the fans feelings towards us and that will only have been amplified by the capture of Torres. The bitter vitriol directed his way will only provide a slice of what the travelling fans expect to reproduce at Stamford Bridge.

It is vitally important that our midfield stamp their authority on proceedings in the opening physical exchanges. Poulsen and Lucas are not physically imposing, but they position themselves well and as seen with the above chalkboard, they are an effective buffer for the eye-of-the-needle pass.

I foresee the opening stages played frenetically, the old mantra of an early goal would do wonders for the team.

2. Wide Boys – I cannot stress the importance of exploiting the wide areas against Liverpool. I really think that given their inability to stop the procession down their touchline, we will generate a lot of chances exposing them in the channels outside their centre backs. Skrtel and Agger are not the most mobile of pairing and when pulled out of position do look slightly ragged. We will need to bypass Liverpool’s holding player(s) to stand any chance of manipulating their back four.

If we are playing the diamond formation, then whoever is occupying the full back spots has a responsibility on their shoulders. Liverpool’s soft spot is also one of their strengths going forward – Kelly and Johnson will want to turn Cole/Ivanovic/Bosingwa and get at them. The first goal at Sunderland highlighted the defensive flaw in the diamond; a narrow midfield means inevitably the opposition can work them into space if they have adventurous full backs.

The onus will be on us to marshal the wide channels efficiently.

My Team

If Torres is fit, Torres should start. Jason Cundy made the point in excellent fashion on Friday Night Live, “You don’t buy a £50m striker and put him on the bench.” I would like to implement the diamond formation that we played at Sunderland with great success. The main reason that the diamond did not work last season was simply due to a lack of legs in midfield. Deco and Ballack did well in a 433, but the shift required in the “shuttler” roles is substantial. Now we have both Essien and Ramires available, the athleticism should not prove to be an issue.

Anelka is the interesting quandary in this situation though. His performance at Sunderland suggested a new found position for Anelka’s skillset. He has a tendency to come deep and central when operating on the right of a 433, so playing him centrally to begin with in a tucked in role should not alter the dynamic of the team. What was noticeable is Anelka’s ability to play between the lines in this role at the tip.

Anelka’s ability to hold the ball up, turn and link play was superb against Sunderland. You can see this being a role that Anelka will cultivate over the rest of the season. There were several noticeable occasions when his dribbling skills from deep instigated quality attacking moments (Carlo©).

The obvious question in all this is simply how does Torres and Drogba cohabitate up front? Despite the shocking analysis by Phil Thompson (surprising, considering his unbiased take on this week’s events), Drobga can/does operate from a wider role with aplomb. I would suggest Torres plays on the shoulder with Drogba roaming, coming deep, going wide and generally being a pest. On paper, there will not be a central pairing in the League who is looking forward to playing Drogba and Torres.

The Harding Question

Via @tom__morris on Twitter: Why didn’t Sturridge get a game, when we couldn’t score for toffee?

I think this question can probably be applied to a lot of the youngsters in the squad, bar perhaps McEachran. I think there was personally a lack of distrust in the majority of the young players in the squad. Playing Ferreira over Bruma is the most pertinent example I can remember. No matter how poorly we performed, the kids remained planted to the bench.

Sturridge, as we know, is a striker. Kakuta, as most people know, came to prominence in a central role behind two strikers. What do we do? Play them as wingers. I think half the problem was an unwillingness to change shape to accommodate the potential held in the kids. If we are to move to a diamond, the “tip” is precisely where Kakuta can play. Sturridge, likewise, would be perfect now playing as a striker.

Via @ChelseaStats on Twitter: Do we need to sign an out-and-out right winger?

It all depends on the system to be perfectly honest. The system is also dependent on the personnel. You could argue that post-Drogba/Anelka we would move back to a lone striker system. In which case, an actual right winger who isn’t called Kalou would be a major positive. As an option, I would love to see someone like Alexis Sanchez bought in. Raw in terms of end product, but exciting and someone the crowd would love to see.

Via @nickthompson8 on Twitter: What potential player exits could trim the wage bill without weakening it significantly? Is sustainability only a dream?

Bosingwa, Ferreira, Zhirkov, Kalou and you would need to evaluate the likes of Drogba and Anelka. If they rekindle their form, I would be all for retaining them. However, if at the end of the season there are tangible signs of decline then someone needs to point out that there are an awful lot of wages tied up in the pair of them.

I have championed Drogba all season, even through his bad patches, but the signing of Torres does change things on a lot of levels. At 26 Torres represents a future not wholly reliant on Didier Drogba. There is a lot of paper talk concerning a mass recruitment drive in the summer, so will the net effect be truly felt? The net effect on wages may be a positive one if the wages are distributed amongst younger players.

Sustainability will have to become a reality, but there is much to be done on the commercial side of the club to really turn this into our future. Torres is a brilliant acquisition in this respect as the commercial windfall is already being felt. Stadium naming rights, expansion and a potential move are all mooted. We seem to be moving to a more reasonable wage structure, Torres aside, so if we can increase revenues then perhaps we may be able to be self-sufficient.

Our problem remains that we have spent excessively on wages and transfer fees without ever really increasing our revenue streams at the same right. Now we are trying to go the other way, but it could prove too little too late. We need to reduce costs and grow our income at a similar rate. It is possible, but we need to improve our marketability.

Via @daspecial1 on Twitter: Does loan exits of Kakuta, Sturridge, Van Aanholt, et al signal beginning of the end re: Chelsea careers and our youth policy?

In years gone by the endless loaning of players seems to have been the kiss of death. Mancienne, Cork, Rajkovic, Sinclair, Matic etc. Some have moved, others are likely to move on and some have moved on without kicking a ball in anger. I will put my optimistic hat on though for the aforementioned names.

Kakuta: if we are to persist with playing the diamond, Kakuta is the ideal player to develop as our number 10 or trequartista. You only need to look at his brief cameo in a central role for Fulham and combine that with his superb performances at youth level to extrapolate his potential there.

Sturridge: he has all the ability as a striker, but will never be a class winger. Personally think he needs to go on loan and show that he can score goals at this level. Two goals in two games for Bolton shows that maybe he was overlooked, in my eyes he certainly was when things were not going well. I think he is most likely to move on if he does not secure first team football at Chelsea.

Van Aanholt: for me he is our future left-back. Unfortunate to be playing in a side that features the world’s best left-back, who rarely succumbs to injury; he needs to remain patient as I think he really has all the tools to be a phenomenal player. Probably a better crosser of the ball than Ashley, if he can become half as good defensively we will be laughing.

I think our youth policy is certainly improving. You only need to see our youth results to see that we are moving in the right direction. The fact remains that only a superb talent will fit straight into the first team squad. In Van Aanholt’s case, I particularly feel he could play weekly for us and be a success story.

The problem his position illustrates is that can you possibly drop Ashley Cole to let him develop? No is the serious answer. So is it better for him to hang around, play a few meaningless games or play competitively on loan?

That remains the question that club have to answer. Hopefully, they are beginning to get things right.

Bolton’s signing of Wheater may mean that the former Middlesbrough player will start on Monday ahead of Knight, but the absence of Davis in midfield should see a start for Tamir Cohen in a central midfield berth.

I would expect Cahill, Robinson and Ricketts to all start the game in the back four. Davies is a certainty to start up front and Elmander will perform two functions as a strike partner and as an extra midfielder when Chelsea has the ball.

Jaaskelainen remains one of the sharpest goalkeepers in the League, who surprisingly has not moved on to a top four club in his time. The time to move has arguably passed him, but he still remains one of the finest goalkeepers operating at the moment. With nearly 500 appearances for Bolton he remains an experienced and agile rear guard.

Predicted Team

Cahill is presently the flavour of the month insofar as centre-backs go, someone presently heavily linked with Arsenal. For me there is still rawness about his game that sometimes manifests itself in poor decision making, but overall he is a solid player with international aspirations.

Zat Knight is going through a renaissance at Bolton this season and was recently quoted as saying this was the best football of his career. A clear threat from set-pieces, his hulking presence and physical prowess make him a very tough opponent. Robinson is a tough tackling and robust sort of defender, limited going forward but very resolute defensively. He lacks pace and can be exposed by a tricky opposite number, arguably the weak link in a back four imbued with power.

I expect Muamba to anchor the midfield to allow the likes of Holden and Taylor to provide support to the front line. Muamba possesses decent athleticism acting as a shield to the back four, but most importantly he adds a ball winning element to the Bolton team. I am presuming Cohen is going to operate in Davis’ absence, with Taylor and Holden operating from wider areas. Taylor is a known threat from set-pieces and his end product is usually very good. Holden is a player in the Albrighton category for me, potentially very good with a nice technical side to his game.

The lynch pin in the Bolton side remains the inimitable presence of Kevin Davies. Possibly the most physical forward in the Premier League who poses a real threat to any side he plays against. Probably one of the more difficult players to play against, simply due to the fact you essentially are conceding maybe 60-70% of balls knocked into him.

With doubts over Terry’s fitness, the prospect of lining up with Bruma and Ivanovic is quite worrying. Heskey peeled onto Bruma earlier this season and caused him a lot of issues in the air. Bolton are far better at getting players in and around the second ball, so we must hope that Terry is there to partner Ivanovic to negate the obvious problems that await.

Elmander is something of an enigma, capable of the sublime but also guilty of some of the ridiculous. Possessing the ability to twist his way through a defence and score a wonderful virtuoso goal and the next minute losing the ability to control the ball. He is a physical threat and when playing well is a more than capable player.

Bolton look to play at a quick tempo and waste little time in looking to move the ball forward from front to back. This does not necessarily mean they are a “long ball team”, but clearly as shown by their incomplete passes against Stoke (below), there is an urgency to move the ball long distances quickly.

The majority of these failed passes are fairly lengthy attempts to move the ball down the park. With Elmander and Davies up top, the amount of crosses is also something to note. Terry, if fit, and Ivanovic will need to be at their very best to combat the two forwards they are likely to be facing. Bolton tend to look to play wide where possible and Taylor will pose a serious problem to Bosingwa. Jose will need to start closing his man down, rather than allowing an easy cross if we are to limit Taylor’s impact on the game.

Bolton is a team that work hard to maintain discipline in front of their own back four. Even in their loss to Stoke they proved very resolute in the area just in front of their final third. Our lack of creativity will pose a problem if, as in recent weeks, our midfield and attack look entirely disjointed. There is almost a perfect line across their final third where Bolton consistently wins the ball back (below), something Muamba and company are adept at.

Coyle’s side will maintain discipline throughout and I would not expect them to abandon their tactical rigidity simply because they are playing at home. It is paramount that we score early. Absolutely paramount. Bolton will look to win the ball in this area and play quickly on the counter-attack, as evidenced by the direct passes correlating with the above and below chalkboards. While many Chelsea fans bemoan the fact we operate with a defined holding player, this will be a game where his presence is a necessity to prevent a quick break and pick up on the second ball that is likely to occur around Davies.

KEY ISSUES

1. Momentum – We need a win. It is as simple as that really. We need to build on some of the encouraging signs we saw in flashes during the Blackburn game. We need to find a way to spark ourselves from the opening of the game. Too often we lack tempo, incisiveness or just a general bloody mindedness in what we are doing. The ponderous build up is crying out for a leader, someone with invention and with recently injured and out of form players assuming the role little is happening. The foundation of our title win was rooted in an excellent back four and clean sheets. After shutting Blackburn out it is imperative we keep a clean sheet against Bolton.

2. Creativity – Where is it? On the bench? Playing for the reserves? In the youth team? What is patently obvious is that the players out of form have not become bad players overnight. What remains a conundrum is what do we do to change the current situation? Continually playing the likes of Anelka, Drogba and Malouda is not helping them rediscover their fluid form. Lampard, if fit, is still games away from making the same sort of impact he has done in recent seasons. All this aside, we are still creating solid chances during games but are lacking the confidence to convert them. Two instances against Blackburn highlighted the difference in Drogba from this season and last. In players like Kakuta, McEachran, Sturridge and even the pace of Lalkovic we have hungry kids who want to prove that they are first team calibre. Sturridge in particular should be commanding a start.

3. Pressure the Ball – I think much of the reason we have looked so lackadaisical in possession is our inability to really apply consistent pressure to the ball. It is something that Ramires is doing particularly well of late: not only winning the ball but picking up the scraps as well. When we actually harry opposition and look to make them play at our pace, they cannot live with us. In fact, this probably relates to the age old theory of “playing your own game”. How many times in this patch of form have we simply waited to react? The only problem is that the reaction was never forthcoming. What we need is more leadership from the middle of the park, the old Michael Essien to return. Having Ivanovic and Terry play out of their skins is meaningless if the commitment is not filtering through to the midfield. Even when Essien was having a particularly bad game, you could still count on him to physically dominate the midfield area. That ubiquity has deserted his game post-injury. We need it back. Now.

My Team

I believe Anelka will start over Sturridge and Mikel will fill in for Lampard if he is not passed fit for the game.

I would personally play Sturridge as I think his pace and directness is something we are lacking at the moment. He would more than likely garner a lot of attention from Robinson, drawing a booking from the full back. It really is now or never for Sturridge in my eyes. The front line is misfiring and needs a catalyst: Kalou is not the answer, I would argue Sturridge is at least worth a try.

The Harding Question

Via @_scanz on Twitter: With Essien being out of form and Ramires and McEachran constantly improving, would you consider dropping Essien?

This is one of those questions that have been mooted around the ground for the past few weeks. Just what has happened to Michael Essien? When you think of Essien you think of that strike against Arsenal, that volley against Barcelona, putting Steven Gerrard in his pocket at Anfield and generally being the best box-to-box midfielder in the world. So what has happened to him? Most alarming for me is that post-injury he has seemingly lost the ability to pass the ball, long or short. I cannot remember watching Essien give the ball away as often as he has in the past few weeks.

Would I drop him though? It would take a very brave man to consider dropping Essien now that he is actually fit. We spent so long bemoaning his absence that I think it would be a bit rich to drop him now he isn’t firing on all cylinders. If there is one player we need to rediscover form, it is Essien. McEachran and Ramires have both shown themselves to be consistently up to the demands of first team football; Ramires in particular has been impressive the past few weeks. Now Mikel is fit there is the option to drop Essien, but the injury problems of Frank Lampard may mean that isn’t a likely scenario.

For any future Harding Questions please email tweedy [at] thechels [dot] org.

I should state that first of all I am not entirely sure as to what formation Blackburn are likely to opt for, but I expect the personnel to be similar to the team below.

Pedersen perhaps tucked in with Olsson operating from a slightly wider berth. I expect the tactic to be similar to the one they employed against Liverpool with a lot of success: pace, pace and some more pace.

Robinson as usual has his critics, but for me he remains an excellent shot stopper and his distribution is one of the best in the League.

In Salgado, Blackburn possesses a wily old schemer who more than makes up for his physical decline with experience and pure craft.

If Samba plays he will provide a huge target for set-pieces, as well as being one of the most physical centre-backs going. Nelsen is quite underrated in the league and a born-leader; quite similar to Terry in his no nonsense approach and partners particularly well with Samba. Givet is probably the weak link in what is a tough, physical and experienced back four.

The midfield is where things becoming interesting for Blackburn. Pedersen has the ability to play both centrally and wide, with his set-piece delivery of a salient danger. There have been times in the past where Pedersen looked as if he could move forward to a “big four” club, but having gone off the boil over the past two seasons there are glimpses of his class returning.

David Dunn is probably the prototypical English footballing sob story, people always looking at him and thinking what might have been. What is unarguable though is his role in the Blackburn team as the chief schemer. Still capable of turning a match on its head with one moment, he will be integral in Blackburn’s game plan.

The real difference makers for me though are the Diouf’s, Olsson and Benjani who provide directness and bundles of pace. We seem to be overly exposed at the moment down the right hand side. Ferreira and Bosingwa are not in the best of form at the moment and the frequency of which Blackburn exposed Liverpool’s right hand side will be alarming. Diouf & Diouf are both tricky, if a little inconsistent, but they will see plenty of the ball and will go at our right side with vigour.

Looking at the direction of play in the Liverpool game it is easy to pinpoint the area and style of which Blackburn will employ. Pinpointing the Liverpool right, Blackburn broke quickly and repeatedly and took a lot of joy from this counter-attacking stance.

This is where the pace and directness of Diouf and co. really come to forefront. All three goals coming from areas on the Blackburn left; the concentration of passing is intense to this side and you can just about make out the directness of what is being achieved.

Whoever slots into the right central midfield spot will have to realise the threat posed by this tactic.

Looking at the overall work ethic of Blackburn is again something we will have to combat. The chalkboard below illustrates the amount of interceptions made in Blackburn’s last game against Liverpool. Not content with merely winning the ball in their own half, Blackburn put pressure on all areas of the park and dispossessed Liverpool in their own half.

Eight interceptions in the Liverpool half versus Liverpool’s ten interceptions in the entire game tell their own story. We at times are ponderous on the ball and will be exposed in the same way that Liverpool were. If we try to play through the middle, it could again pose us with some issues as Blackburn tend to defend well on the edge of their area.

KEY ISSUES:

1. BOLD TEAM SELECTION - I often speak of confidence and what a good result breeds within a team. At the moment I believe we need to simply take a good few Mourinho style 1-0 wins to bring things back into line. In my mind this requires Ancelotti to make a bold decision regarding his team selection.

Smashing Ipswich for seven in the context of Arsenal’s failing may be slightly more encouraging, but can Carlo make the bold decision and perhaps keep some of those elements that worked against Ipswich in the side? Daniel Sturridge is on fire at the moment, five goals in a reserve team game followed by two stunning goals against Ipswich, he must start. Even McEachran showed more ability in retaining the ball than our midfield has in recent months.

While I’m not advocating starting all the kids, it might be what is needed to kick-start the season. Van Aanholt is good enough, McEachran is good enough, Bruma is good enough, Kakuta is good enough and Sturridge certainly is. Two out of the five to start?

2. TEMPO, TEMPO, TEMPO - Where we are in a “bad moment” (Ancelotti ©), we seem to have lost the ability to play any sort of coherent football: we play too direct, too slow, with no creativity, pace or passion. However, the thing that is really killing us at present is our tempo of play.

Often put down to Mikel, that has recently been proven to be a myth. If there is no movement ahead of the ball, we could have Beckenbauer playing there and he still would struggle. There was no coincidence that Mikel’s form dropped when those ahead of him tailed off. Nor is a shock that Essien has struggled to regain form playing primarily from the deep role.

Time to change shape? Possibly. The 433 is struggling without our usual verve and when key figures are missing, it patently isn’t working. Aston Villa adopted a tactic to close down the ball at every opportunity and it was only when we really increased the tempo that we went and scored three goals. Why do we need to go behind in games to start playing well?

3. THE DROGBA CONUNDRUM - So what has happened to the Drog? Last season he was battering teams left, right and centre. This season a bout of malaria has rendered him a shadow of his fearsome self. Do we play him? Do we rest him? Does he get benched? We saw against Ipswich that we have a striker who is scoring goals sitting on the bench. How big a call would it to be to bench Drogba though? Massive, in my eyes and there is a solution…

For the record, we will probably line up: Cech; Bosingwa, Ivanovic, Terry, Cole; Essien, Ramires, Lampard; Anelka, Drogba, Kalou/Sturridge. (433)

Playing Kakuta behind the strikers will finally see one of our brightest talents in his natural position, while Sturridge playing alongside Drogba could be precisely what we need in attack. Carlo had a lot of early success with the Diamond last season but has been reticent to use it.

Without the squad on top form, the three in midfield are getting outplayed on a regular basis and the keystone of our entire style of play is faltering because of this. Bringing Malouda, Anelka and Kalou on from the bench are also far more game changing substitutions than bringing Sturridge/Kakuta on as wingers.

CHELSEA vs BLACKBURN ROVERS 15/01/11

Chelsea meet Blackburn Rovers at the Bridge as they get back to the Premier League after an emphatic 7-0 demolition of Ipswich Town.

Daniel Sturridge is the man of the moment having scored 7 goals in 2 games, 5 coming in the reserves in a 7-3 win over rivals Spurs.

Daniel recorded a 31.0% accuracy rate (shots on target of total shots) and averaged 0.714 goals per game in 2009/10 whilst being top scorer in the FA Cup for the blues last year.

He very much deserves a start upfront especially whilst the likes of Didier Drogba still looks short of fitness and form.

This is set to be the 110th meeting against Rovers in all competitions Chelsea have won 45 (41.28%), drawn 29 (26.61%) and lost 35 (32.11%) of the previous 109. Chelsea have also kept a clean sheet on 32 occasions. (29.36%)

Chelsea last lost to Rovers in the league in 2006, 0-1 away from home, Chelsea had already confirmed back to back league titles by then. At Home the last league defeat was 2003 (1-2).

In the last 18 league games Chelsea have won 12 (66.67%), whilst drawing 4 (22.22%) and losing twice (11.11%).

Chelsea are just 2 goals away from 100 goals at home versus Blackburn Rovers

Chelsea’s premier league history with Blackburn is nothing more than a cliché. A game of two halves, the first half; Chelsea had only won once in 15.

In the second half they have only lost once, the swing in fortunes began with an emphatic 4-3 away win back in 1998. Super Sub Tore Andre Flo scored twice in the last ten minutes

Blackburn were 3-2 up and on course for all three points before the Norwegian international made his impact when he came off the bench to grab two goals in the final eight minutes, a  first win at Ewood Park for 22 years.

The win at Ewood Park back in October this season is the only time Chelsea have come from a goal down to secure all three points this season, and was our last away win in the league.

It may also be the first time since Blackburn and Moscow that Chelsea record back to back wins in all competitions.

Blackburn are 1-0-4 in their last five away games, ranked 17th in the league and incidentally Chelsea are ranked 18th away from home with a 0-2-3 record, but at home the Blues are 2-2-1 and ranked 11th in the league.

At the Bridge, 1.60 points per home game is compared to Blackburn’s 0.60 points per away game.

Chelsea’s record over Blackburn in recent seasons and the current home versus away form of the two sides would suggest a home win and a big weight off  the team’s shoulders as they look to regain some confidence and a place in the top 4 of the Premier League.

ASTON VILLA (H) 02/01/11

Expected Team:

Friedel remains one of the more consistent Goalkeeper’s in the Premier League and will present a significant obstacle for Chelsea to overcome. Rarely found wanting, he is decent on crosses and a good shot stopper. His issue remains the amount of times he is tested during a game; Aston Villa tend to allow several clear-cut chances during a game, an indicative symbol of their current League position.

Collins and Cuellar have become Houllier’s preferred pairing in the heart of defence, replacing Dunne. Collins is an immobile choice at the back, while Cuellar’s style is both haphazard and clumsy at best. They are still very much a pairing in development and have been exposed at times this season, with the performance against Arsenal particularly poor.

Warnock remains a steady, if unspectacular, player who provides little attacking impetus for a modern full-back, whereas Lichaj is a player I feel is quite a promising full-back with a Rory Delap calibre throw-in; he is a more rounded player than the Stoke man.

Aston Villa’s undoubted strength comes from the pace and crossing ability that their wide men possess. In Albrighton, Villa possesses arguably the best crosser of a football in English football at the moment. His end product is at times absolutely perfect, which makes you wonder why Heskey or Carew have not scored more goals.

Ashley Young and Stewart Downing add further quality to this trio of wing wonders, both being direct, sharp and dangerous in the right areas. Young is both direct and pacey, while Downing has an excellent left foot and is a danger from outside the box. Agbonlahor should start up front for Villa and the problem he presents is obvious: electric pace and extremely robust.

Petrov and Reo-Coker will play a no thrills part in the centre of midfield. They will look to disrupt and niggle and sweep the ball out to the wide areas where possible. Petrov is still finding his feet after a spell out of the side, but he is combative and if given time can pass the ball with good effect. I expect Reo-Coker to provide the legs and bite, but he also gets from box-to-box and pops up in the area as you will remember from last season.

When Aston Villa play well they exploit the width of the pitch with superb efficiency. A team who are very much the antithesis of Arsenal, they will play the ball square, direct and look to hit both flanks as soon as possible.

In Ashley Young, Stewart Downing and Marc Albrighton Aston Villa have possibly the best trio of crossers in the Premier League. It is therefore no coincidence that Houllier will try to get the ball wide whenever possible to look to attack the byline and swing crosses into the box. Young’s pace will pose a problem to whoever he plays against, and the frequency he touches the ball will mean that he will eventually get quality into the penalty area.

Likewise, Albrighton looks a potential England winger in the making and his crossing ability is simply superb. John Terry and Jeffrey Bruma will have their hands tied aerially if Villa takes control of those channels.

What the chalkboard illustrates perfectly is the complete lack of centrally attempted passes in Aston Villa’s recent game against West Brom. Look at the frequency of balls arrowed wide and direct passes/crosses into the box. There is a clear pattern of play at hand here and something that we are generally good at counteracting. In Ashley Cole we possess one of the best one-on-one defenders in the game anywhere in the world, and you would think that Bosingwa’s pace would nullify some of the impact that Young in particular will have.

Their recent game against Manchester City highlighted the inherent fault with this philosophy. If you can stop them playing the ball wide and stop the ball coming into the box, you will stop them from scoring. Of course, City are one of the more defensively minded teams in the Premier League who look to play on the counterattack, yet their strength comes from their ability to manoeuvre opposition teams into the channels they want them to operate within.

The graphic illustrates this perfectly. The intense cluster of passes made is in an area that City can easily contain Villa, with only a handful of passes making any sort of impact around the area. In fact, Villa only managed to hit corners or long balls into the box with any success. We will need to similarly limit Villa’s ability to work the ball wide if we are to stop them successfully.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
KEY ISSUES

1. MOMENTUM – After our recent woes the key word being thrown around the training ground this week will be “momentum”. We have a series of eminently winnable games coming up and they arrive at a time where the team are struggling for rhythm. Lampard showed glimpses of the control and experience we have missed in the past weeks, while Essien showed exactly what he capable is of with his rampaging run and pass to Drogba.

I will stress that there is nothing more important than picking up three points against Aston Villa. However, we must show some evidence of controlling possession and creating chances. Our next run of games is as follows: Wolves, Blackburn, Bolton, Sunderland, Liverpool, Fulham and Birmingham. We must take momentum from Bolton, through to Villa and beyond to go on a run of wins. Villa inclusive, we have a real chance to win 24 points on the bounce if we start to perform anywhere near our collective ability.

2. RAMIRES – Okay, we get it. Many of you do not rate the lad, fine. Yes, he cost a lot of money, is a Brazilian international and at 23 is not exactly a kid. Is it his fault he has been placed in a new League, in a side underperforming and short of confidence? New players should be afforded a settling in period, but Ramires has been thrown in at the deep end and asked to deputise in the absence of Essien and Lampard. Hardly the easiest of jobs for any recognised squad member, let alone a new addition.

All that aside, he actually has played fairly well of late. Ramires is getting used to the tempo of the League and needs people to vocally back him. After a good piece of play against Bolton, which was warmly received by the crowd, Ramires visibly grew on the pitch and ended up the best player on the park. Ramires is quick on the ball and should look to drive forward where possible to cause the opposition problems. His engine is superb, very much like Michael Essien, and he will be instrumental in covering the wider areas of the park to combat the pace of Messrs Young and Agbonlahor.

You get the feeling if the crowd back him or he manages to pop up with a goal, he might develop a little quicker than many anticipated. I talk about confidence and how it breeds performances. Look at the tangible difference pre-goal and post-goal in Chelsea’s performance against Bolton. Top players looking nervous, afraid in a way that was akin to watching England play; then we score. Ramires was no different to our experienced players. All he needs is a few things to go his way and to get physically acclimatised to the demands of the League and I think we have a bit of a player on our hands.

3. PLAYING ON THE FRONT FOOT – Too often of late we have let the opposition have far too much possession in dangerous areas. At Arsenal and with Bolton at home, we let the opposition play to their strengths as they dictated the tempo. Arsenal managed to play the ball through the middle thrice and scored thrice; Bolton managed to fire a plethora of crosses into the box and really were quite unlucky to not score from one of their chances.

We must take the impetus from the beginning and actually play our own game instead of this reactionary/static way we have been playing in recent weeks. Too often we are sitting back and waiting for counter that is not forthcoming. We need to get back to dominating possession and subsequently the middle of the park. Lampard will help with this effective possession, but Essien also needs to use his broad shoulders to start taking more responsibility.

If Drogba continues to improve, Malouda’s scoring boots remain on and Anelka/Sturridge/Kalou contributes, there is a real chance we can start to create the amount of chances that ensure we start to convert them.

Firstly, we must limit the amount of times Villa get in and around our byline and secondly, we need to expose the lack of pace in the Villa centre-back pairing as often as possible (by counterattacking/using our own width), we should come out of the game with all three points. If we take the game to Villa we will win. I have no doubt that our form is slowly returning, but we will need to supplement the squad in January if we are to really push on and compete for the title.

If our first eleven manage to play the majority of the season without injury or suspension, we have a real shot. Momentum is utterly vital though.

THE TEAM:

Given Villa’s salient strength combines pace and width, I would plump for Bosingwa to start ahead of Paulo in the right back berth. Bruma is likely to start the game at centre back and you cannot overstate the test of his credentials that Gabriel Agbonlahor will provide. Bruma needs to adopt the Gallas/Carvalho role, acting as the sweeper for Terry to attack the ball/the man when it is played direct to the Villa front line.

At this stage in his career he needs to concentrate of being a defender first and then a ball player. Cech and Bosingwa must communicate with him at all times to ensure that he does not go wandering. I am eagerly looking forward to seeing him in action in a competitive game and glad that Carlo has actually trusted him to start.

Ramires simply needs to pick up from where he left the game at Bolton, looking good and providing the sort of performance that you would expect for his price tag and reputation. Essien’s inner bison needs to be released once more, winning the personal battles with Reo-Coker and Petrov as/when they emerge.

One crunching tackle or piece of play will lift the crowd/the side and I am looking to him as the catalyst for the tempo. Frank needs to keep looking to improve his match sharpness, pick up the ball and pop it around the park. Anything from Frank will be a bonus at the moment, all things considered.

The front three needs to perform to some modicum of their combined talents. I personally would pick someone other than Anelka to start, he has been lackadaisical of late and with Sturridge on the bench I would prefer the directness he provides.

This is a game we should really be looking to win if we are serious about getting our title defence back on track. If the tempo is there, this should be quite straightforward: I am going for a 2-0 win.

OK, so it’s not necessarily just the Arsenal defeat where things have gone wrong recently.

One win since mid November – and that merely a late one in a below-par outing against MSK Zilina – has left Blues fans reeling at the club’s worst run of form for over a decade, and has left a number of questions in need of an answer.

Is it an issue with squad depth? Was the downward spiral triggered by Ray Wilkins’ unexpected and untimely departure? Have the players become too comfortable? Do they care? Are they good enough?

It can, and will, go on and on. With Bolton less than 48 hours away and in the knowledge that a win at Stamford Bridge will take them above the Blues, something of a crisis point has been reached.

A solid, if not great first half display at the Emirates Stadium on Monday night was soured by Alex Song’s breakthrough just before the break. Two goals in two minutes from Cesc Fabregas and Theo Walcott put the game beyond Carlo Ancelotti’s troubled troups, and despite a consolation from Branislav Ivanovic, the game was up.

Rather than go into a full scale report on proceedings – from a match Chelsea fans will quickly want to forget – let’s take a look at some of the on-field problems plaguing the current defending champions.

With just six goals in eight matches and no more than one in any domestic fixture since Blackburn away in October, there are clear and present issues in the attacking third.

Certainly, there is a knock-on effect from the build-up play elsewhere on the pitch, but to analyse things in more detail, let’s take a look at the reverse fixture this season, during happier times when goals from Didier Drogba and Alex secured a 2-0 win over the Gunners at Stamford Bridge.

Against this particular opponent perhaps more than any other, Drogba has thrived on being the physical battering ram in attack, and Chelsea duly play to his strengths.

Petr Cech’s excellent long distance kicks to the Ivorian are commonplace, especially in this fixture, but despite Johan Djourou doing a fine job this time around, Chelsea’s talismanic striker struggled for support.

At home, he was able to dominate his marker, but had help in the form of runners from midfield, looking to outnumber their red-shirted opponents and play in space.

However, come the re-match, Arsenal adapted well, giving him a tougher time in receiving the ball, whilst ensuring more men were back. Drogba had little help, with Lampard and Malouda in this example both having given up on the ball before it’s been won, whilst Kalou is far too wide.

If this approach wasn’t going to work, there were surely alternatives? Again, it’s a tale of two matches. With their tails up, confident and in form and with a lead at home, Ramires has plenty of options to choose from as he looks to advance the ball.

On Monday, John Obi Mikel takes up possession a little deeper, but looks forward to a sea of Arsenal shirts, with no easy ball forwards. Instead, he goes on to search out Drogba, gets it completely wrong, and concedes possession.

The importance of playing forward cannot be stressed enough. It is preached at every level and is the only way to play, as otherwise it affords the opposition too much of an opportunity to rest and stay in their shape. Rotating possession is fine, and a very integral part of success, but the ability to play further up the pitch is paramount.

Unfortunately, it has plagued the team in recent times. Here, Ramires once again – one who was superb in the home fixture but overlooked in the away one despite impressive recent form – has a multitude of options to choose from. He finds the out of picture Ashley Cole, who provides Drogba with the chance to open the scoring, which he duly does.

Deeper down the pitch at the Emirates, Kalou breaks up play in a similar manner to the above, but has nothing available, and once again, turns the ball over.

It doesn’t get a whole lot better when playing in and around the penalty area. Despite being almost outnumbered, Ancelotti’s forwards provide Ramires with options midway through the second half, with Drogba pulling away from his man into space to facilitate the through ball.

Contrastingly, early in the game, when attempting to seize an early initiative, Lampard turns in anticipation of attacking movement, only to once again find nothing. His options are to play the ball wide to Kalou, or to play backwards, allowing Arsenal to add to their strong numbers behind the ball.

By making it easy for the opposition to defend, Chelsea offer them confidence to go about their business at the other end, safe in the knowledge that there is little to worry about at the back.

Here, at 0-0 in both fixtures, the ball is worked wide to the full-back – something which was a clear target for Chelsea in both matches – who has time and space to fashion a delivery. At home, he has men on the move, ready to meet the ball, and a late arrival at the back post if necessary.

Away, he simply has Drogba. The header is won and he goes close, but the situation is in Arsenal’s favour, and once again they aren’t truly threatened.

Now, you might say that these situations have been selected to prove a series of points, whilst missing the bigger picture. That much might be argued, but there was a clear difference between winning and losing.

Arsenal dominated possession on both grounds, and had more attempts at goal. Chelsea scored twice from set pieces (which are Arsenal’s biggest flaw this season) – one direct and one indirect – but looked more threatening in attacking situations at home.

Playing a counter-attacking system each time, it was important to make full use of the ball when you have it. If possession is wasted – and Chelsea only had 39% of it in defeat – the match quickly becomes a one-sided affair.

It’s also not just about the two fixtures. With the exception of the away fixture at Birmingham, where 31 attempts at goal were recorded, things have been desperate in front of goal.

Injury problems haven’t helped, and the squad depth issue is another argument, but one which may prove harder to fix. These tactical issues, nothing more than providing more options for the man on the ball, can be addressed.

The players look petrified as of right now, afraid to make a mistake which could make things worse. With two tricky home fixtures coming in the next six days, the focus must be on improving morale, and getting numbers into attack.

And remember, win or lose, up the Blues.

With the United match now on the back-burner until March, the focus switches to another of this seasons title contenders; Arsenal.

Fabianski’s return in goal should be a welcome sight for Chelsea fans. His presence in goal this season has made a shaky central pairing look even more fragile, as Vermaelen’s loss is felt with each passing game.

Fabianski possesses an inability to claim crosses and is a man with a penchant for high profile rickets; the Chelsea attack should be relishing his inclusion.

The Arsenal full-backs are pacey and better going forward than defensively, who generally suffer from lack of protection from their wide men. Squillaci and Koscielny have shown a lack of cohesion in recent weeks, an uncomfortable pairing that look even more uneasy when protecting Fabianski.

Wenger’s main joy will come from the passing, interplay and movement of his front four/five. Fabregas has been below his usually impeccable standards this season, but his vision and ability to pick out a pass are exceptional.

Being shielded by Song and Diaby will give Fabregas license to link up with Arsenal’s front three, who are as potent a combination as anywhere in Europe. The impressive Nasri joins Arshavin and Van Persie in a dangerous and threatening forward line.

Moving Nasri out wide may be a blessing in disguise, as he has been far more influential playing the Fabregas role in the Arsenal Captain’s absence.

The heatmap to the right shows Arsenal at their most effective; taken from their demolition of Aston Villa in November. If Arsenal’s midfield and front three control the tempo of the game, they are deadly.

Their interplay at times is mesmerising, but it relies heavily on dominating the middle of the park. If Fabregas can take possession in the key areas on the right, Arsenal will hurt us. We can see they rarely look to work the ball wide, but instead rely on working the ball primarily in the central two channels. Arshavin is particularly adept at moving into these channels and exploiting space.

Arsenal’s strength, as with the above, is in their ability to maintain possession and work intricate triangles in the opponents half. Fabregas, Nasri and Arshavin in particular will need to be monitored carefully as they tend to drift from their starting positions in between the lines of the opposition (note to Michael Essien and Jon Obi Mikel).

However, in my eyes the true danger lies in the left boot of a certain Robin van Persie. Van Persie is a big match player, that is without question and his ability to score goals against top sides is particularly well documented. His movement is superb and although he is just back from injury, for me he is the biggest threat.

Mikel, Ivanovic and Terry need to ensure RVP remains facing his own goal for as long as possible, as his quick feet will trouble if he gets turned or in behind.

For all their attacking quality they do lack a big match mentality. The most salient part of Arsenal’s defeat at United was their inability to pass the ball in their usual fluid manner. Moreover, if there is one side in Europe that can counteract a passing side, it is Chelsea.

The fear of Drogba is well documented, but you do doubt the psychological effect of one player on a side of professional footballers. With Drogba though, the doubts dissipate. Apparently Arsenal fans believe they have more chance of beating Barcelona over two legs than stopping Drogba from scoring?

If we are to win, and we must win, Drogba will need to play the school bully once more.

KEY ISSUES:

1. MAKE ARSENAL PLAY WIDE – We need a stellar performance from Messrs Mikel and Essien in the middle of the park.

Mikel seems to be a marmite player, he is liked or loathed, but if you cannot see his importance in big games then you need to take your blinkers off. Invariably excellent against top tier opposition, he was superb at Stamford Bridge and last season kept Fabregas firmly in his pocket.

Michael Essien has been slightly off key post-injury, but looked more like his rampaging self against Tottenham in the second half. Looking at the incomplete pass attempts from the game at Stamford Bridge, we can see the benefit of making Arsenal play both long and forcing them to cross the ball.

This requires immense positional discipline and will mean Essien may need to curb his enthusiasm for bursting forward with the ball. Clearly we should favour Terry and Ivanovic over any of Arsenal’s front three/four in the air, so shifting them from their favoured channels should work to our advantage. Arsenal will probably dominate possession, but if they are playing side-to-side that is a positive thing for Chelsea.

They do not want to cross the ball, but when they eventually do you can take that as a victory for Mikel, Essien and Lampard. If Arsenal manages to score from a cross, it will be from a poor piece of defending and not by design.

2. DIDER DROGBA AND FRANK LAMPARD – I cannot remember a player in the Abramovich era ever being as dominant as Drogba is against Arsenal. He is having a quiet season by his own admission, but the fired up Drogba versus Spurs is hopefully looking at Arsenal with a carnivorous grin.

We must not be afraid to look early to Drogba against the Arsenal back line, but this also means that we need to get players around Drogba looking for the second ball (cue Lampard). Drogba’s strength, hold up play and all around bully boy self needs to be evident from the outset.

If he scores, watch the old Drogba return. If he plays well, we will win. He scored a remarkable goal at Stamford Bridge, was a general pest all game and was a menace last season. Please Didier, put your hunting boots on.

Frank, Super Frank, how we have missed you. I am not sure what speed Lampard is up to in terms of his preparation, but if one chance falls his way in the penalty box, who will doubt the best goalscoring midfielder in Europe from slotting it away?

In Frank’s absence it was worrying that no other player could link with the forward line as well. It is of no surprise that our team have looked so disjointed in recent weeks. Lampard brings a balance, an experience, a class and lethality to our midfield that no one else inspires.

People will bang on about Lampard as a purely attacking force, but do take note of how he organises things defensively: I guarantee our midfield looks like it knows each other.

3. SET PIECES AND CROSSES – We are due a goal from a set piece very soon. Drogba, Terry, Ivanovic and Essien are all exceptional in the air and easily overpower/tower over their opposition. Any corner or free kick must be attacked with vigour and purpose.

I am still not happy with the quality of our delivery, but you would bank on us winning the majority of aerial contests in the Arsenal penalty box. Fabianksi is very suspect on crosses and this uncertainty seeps into his defence the more he comes under pressure. We need to pinpoint the Arsenal full backs, often isolated, and pepper crosses into Drogba.

THE TEAM:

The only real question is whether to play Bosingwa over Ferreira. In all honesty I think Paulo is likely to start after his handling of the current World’s Best Player Gareth Bale (I kid, honestly). However, I think given Arsenal’s general pace and our preference to play them on the counter-attack, Bosingwa might be the better option.

The midfield trio picks itself and as with the above thoughts, will determine a large part of whether we come out victorious. We need a performance from Anelka, who has been underwhelming of late. Last thoughts relate to our substitutes bench, which finally has some real impact quality on there for the first time in what seems like weeks.

Ramires, Kalou, Ferreira/Bosingwa and Sturridge provide real options to alter the game if things are not going our way. We have also got players to now alter the system if we choose.

Prediction is a simple one: Drogba plays well, we will win.